Would it surprise you when I say that empty calories are the single most destructive element in our society today?

It sure surprised me when this thought first crossed my mind. I love chocolate, chips, and ice cream just as much as the next guy (possibly even more), so I certainly didn’t want to make this discovery. But the more I looked into it, the more it made sense.

Indeed, empty calories cost society more than any other terrible thing you can think of — war, violence, and terrorism, smoking, alcohol, and other drugs, climate change and other environmental damages — empty calories beat them all.

In this article, I’ll break down the numbers and estimate the true social cost of some of our most popular health-destroying treats.

Obesity

Let’s start with the most visible and broadly discussed impact of empty calories. By itself, obesity was almost the greatest single man-made social burden in 2014 (see the image below). And given the rate at which it’s expanding, it probably takes top spot today (around $2.5 trillion). The damages could even be substantially greater. For example, this report puts the cost of obesity at $1.7 trillion for the United States alone — a staggering 9.3% of total economic output!

Although physical inactivity does play a part, empty calories must take most of the blame for the global obesity epidemic. Healthy levels of exercise increase our calorie burn by about 15%, which is countered by a natural increase in appetite. In contrast, the ruinous effects of empty calories on our bodies’ natural satiety response can easily make us binge double the recommended daily calorie allowance.

In fact, I’m not even sure it’s possible to become obese without consuming any empty calories. If you know of someone who stays obese on an empty-calorie-free whole-food diet, I would be very interested in learning more.

Overall, I would lay 50–90% of the blame for the obesity epidemic on empty calories. This equates to about $1.8 trillion per year.

Absenteeism and Presenteeism

But obesity is not even the most damaging effect of empty calories. An even greater cost comes from the degree to which these unhealthy treats create nutritional deficiencies. They do this by taking up such a large fraction of our daily caloric requirement (ultra-processed foods make up almost 60% of the average American diet) that there is simply not enough room left for the nutrient-rich foods our bodies need to stay healthy.

The most direct effect of our overfed and undernourished society is high levels of absenteeism (inability to work due to illness) and presenteeism (trying to work while ill). An average of around 12 sick days per year subtracts about 5% of global productive output, with presenteeism accounting for much more. These costs are particularly severe in Asia, where the average employee in Hong Kong is losing an astounding 77 workdays.

It’s hard to believe such numbers. If we estimate the average global productivity loss at 40 workdays per individual, that adds up to 18% of total economic output or $16 trillion of lost value per year — greater than the entire economy of China!

How much of this crazy number would be eliminated if empty calories vanished from society? That’s hard to say. Other factors such as stress, mental illness, and other unhealthy lifestyle choices like smoking and alcohol abuse also play major roles. However, my experience shows that excellent nutrition has the power to eliminate common illnesses, even when other factors like stress and sleep are far from ideal. Others I know who made similar changes to their lifestyles confirmed this notion.

Sadly, unhealthy diet is the largest behavioral health issue in the workplace today, with two-thirds of people reporting not meeting generally accepted healthy eating standards (which is quite a low bar in the first place).

To better isolate the effects of poor nutrition, we need to subtract other factors from this massive total cost. The share of productivity losses in the total obesity burden mentioned in the obesity report discussed earlier is about 70%. If we subtract 70% of the costs related to obesity, smoking, and alcohol from that report and the costs of mental illness discussed next, we’re left with $9.5 trillion in damages.

Much of this is caused by common illnesses that can be largely prevented by eliminating empty calories and eating a whole-food diet supplying the body with all necessary nutrients. Thus, I would attribute 20–60% of this huge societal burden to empty calories.

Mental Illness

I’ve previously made the statement that Western society has successfully weaponized food for psychological torture. This is no hyperbole. A society that idolizes overly thin body shapes while surrounding itself with ultra-addictive substances purpose-built to encourage overeating guarantees widespread psychological problems. Women are particularly affected by this problem, mainly due to huge social pressures to achieve the impossible beauty standards portrayed in the media.

Mental illness could be costing the world even more than obesity. This report puts the cost at a whopping 3.8% of GDP (about $3.3 trillion), about half of it from depression. How much of this can be linked to the poor body image and general poor health created by empty calories is unknown, but you can probably imagine that it would be a substantial fraction. I would put it somewhere between 10 and 40%.

Growth Prospects

Out of all these scary numbers, the thing that frightens me most is how rapidly these massive societal costs are growing. As hundreds of millions of developing world citizens join the middle-class, empty calories are among the first small luxuries that become readily available. Addiction quickly takes hold, leading the developing world to follow the developed world to becoming seriously overfed and undernourished.

We must stop this madness. Easily the best way would be to tax ultra-processed foods to correctly reflect these massive societal costs, but we’re a long way from getting this done. So, for the time being, our only choice is to take full personal responsibility for ourselves and our societies. To do this, we need a proper understanding of what these costs truly are.

The True Cost of Empty Calories

Adding up these estimates puts the global burden of empty calories somewhere between 3.5 and 9.3 trillion dollars. According to this study, the average American diet consists of almost 60% ultra-processed foods and only 30% whole foods. In Europe, the numbers are about half that amount, with the UK almost reaching the lamentable US level. But the best overview comes from this comprehensive study, illustrated below.

Less than half of the foods in the figure qualify as truly addictive empty calories (contributing to obesity and mental illness), but all these foods have low nutritional value (contributing to absenteeism and presenteeism). We will therefore take two-thirds of these ultra-processed foods into account in the calculation.

This means about 85 kg of empty calories per person in the highly developed West, 25 kg in the moderately developed East and Latin America, and 10 kg in the rest of the world. This leads to an average of about 22 kg per person. At 5 kcal per gram, this amounts to about 300 kcal per person per day. Data from the same study shows that ultra-processed beverages contribute another 40 kcal, bringing the total to 340 kcal per person per day.

So, if we take the average economic burden of $6.4 trillion, this amounts to $2.3 per person per day or roughly $7 per 1000 kcal. With that in mind, let me present the true cost of some of your favorite snacks:

Please contribute to reducing this enormous burden by always paying the true cost of empty calories. A great way to do this is to use your charitable donations contract to donate $7 for every 1000 kcal of unhealthy food you buy. This allows you to naturally adopt a healthier diet while simultaneously supporting some great causes.

Just like offsetting your carbon footprint, paying the true social cost of empty calories is the right thing to do. But unlike carbon offsets, paying a fair price for empty calories brings direct benefits to you and your loved ones. Please give it a shot — it’s a true win-win scenario!

Thanks to Alta Cloete.